دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 The effect of personality orientation and emotional competence on self-efficacy and social entrepreneurship intention تأثیر جهت‌گیری شخصیتی و شایستگی عاطفی بر خودکارآمدی و قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی 1 28 4897 10.22070/cs.2025.20608.1438 FA مجید محمدشفیعی دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران . 0000-0002-2222-6006 مرضیه حسینی سرتشنیزی دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. 0000-0003-4827-4943 حاتم خلیلی پور دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران. 0000-0001-6134-6935 Journal Article 2024 05 03 Introduction and Purpose: In developing countries, entrepreneurship and new business start-ups are recognized as important factors of economic growth and play a fundamental role in innovation, agility and job creation. Entrepreneurship accelerates economic progress by introducing new products, services and technologies. As the global economy becomes increasingly competitive, countries face challenges in developing and sustaining their economic growth. Innovation has been realized as one of the critical agendas of governments around the world to advance competitive advantage and sustainable economic development of both countries. Entrepreneurial intention among students is influenced by various psychological factors. Understanding these relationships can help to know what drives future entrepreneurs and how to prepare and support them through educational programs. Cognitive characteristics are valuable elements that influence social entrepreneurial intention, but they are not sufficient, because entrepreneurship implicitly includes an emotional component. Because the environments in which entrepreneurs operate are unpredictable, emotional problems can have significant impacts on important aspects of business work. It is difficult to separate rational and emotional perspectives because emotions influence information, cognitive processing, and subsequent behavioral tendencies. Personality traits of individuals influence their intention to start a business, but little attention has been paid to emotional factors in developing countries because there is a lack of knowledge on this topic. Furthermore, research examining emotional factors in starting or creating companies is quite limited, and the knowledge gained on the relationship of emotional competencies to the propensity for social entrepreneurship is limited and only conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, research examining emotional factors in starting or creating companies is quite limited, and the knowledge gained on the relationship of emotional competencies to the propensity for social entrepreneurship is limited and only conducted in developed countries. The relationship between self-efficacy and goal attainment for entrepreneurial aspirations is proposed in the social cognitive career theory. The social cognitive career theory claims that self-efficacy beliefs, outcome expectations, and goal setting are the basis of career development. This model suggests that our beliefs about ourselves (self-efficacy) and what we expect to achieve (outcome expectations) work together to guide our career paths. The aim of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework that identifies the relationship between personality, emotional competence, and social entrepreneurship intention among university graduates or students in Tehran. Methodology: In terms of practical purpose, this research is survey-type descriptive research in terms of nature and method. The statistical population of the research is the students and graduates of Tehran universities in Tehran, and a Likert scale was used to design the questionnaire. The questionnaire used had 39 items. To check the validity of the questionnaire, the method of content validity and construct validity was used; this means that the questionnaire was given to several professors who unanimously confirmed the validity of the questionnaire. Convergent and divergent validity were used to check the construct validity and the results showed that the questions have good validity. To evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire. Based on the results, Cronbach's alpha and Composite reliability coefficient was obtained for all research variables above 0.70. In this research, the sampling method is simple random sampling, and considering the unlimited size of the population the number of samples is estimated at 430 people. The method of data analysis was structural equation modeling with the help of Spss25 and Amos24 software. Findings: The results of testing the research hypotheses show that social and entrepreneurial orientation has a positive and significant effect on self-efficacy and social entrepreneurship intention. Emotional competence (social and personal) has a positive and significant effect on self-efficacy and social entrepreneurship intention. Self-efficacy has a positive and significant effect on social entrepreneurship intention. The partial mediation role of self-efficacy in the effect of orientation (entrepreneurial and social), emotional competence (social and personal) on social entrepreneurship intention was confirmed. Discussion and Conclusion: The people who are interested in entrepreneurship should communicate with organizations and stakeholders and become aware of their needs. It is also suggested that new solutions for improving work and entrepreneurship should be encouraged. Creating a network with people with expertise is one of the solutions that leads to strengthening the application of technological knowledge in line with the success of entrepreneurship. Establishing relationships with people who are active in the field of technology and entrepreneurship leads to identifying and creating opportunities for recognition and learning for entrepreneurs. Identifying and creating an entrepreneurial and creative environment encourages people to learn knowledge, which can lead to improving innovative knowledge and entrepreneurial orientation. Also, training in technology-related skills can help entrepreneurs become familiar with new technologies and provide the basis for using them in their businesses. Establishing connections with technological knowledge resources is another way to strengthen the impact of social orientation on entrepreneurial self-efficacy. Entrepreneurs must be able to effectively connect with technological knowledge sources to benefit from the latest knowledge and technologies. In addition, opportunities to connect with successful organizations in the field of entrepreneurship should be created. In a socially oriented academic environment, course content as well as practical training should be directed to students in a way that enhances students' knowledge and skills in order to increase their management skills and risk-taking. The development of entrepreneurship among students and graduates depends on various factors. One of the most important of them is the identification and development of entrepreneurial capabilities and skills in students. Examining students' entrepreneurial skills can help to grow and develop the entrepreneurial spirit and, consequently, increase entrepreneurial behaviors in them. In fact, students, as managers and future business owners, must keep pace with changes and developments in order to be successful. One of the most important factors that helps keep pace with developments is turning to entrepreneurship and developing entrepreneurial skills in students. امروزه، کارآفرینی اجتماعی به‌عنوان ابزاری مؤثر و کارآمد برای مقابله با بحران‌های پیچیده اجتماعی- اقتصادی و بشردوستانه، بیش‌ازپیش موردتوجه قرارگرفته است. در چنین شرایطی، کشورها و سازمان‌ها به کارآفرینانی نیاز دارند که با ترکیب ریسک‌پذیری، خلاقیت و نوآوری همگام با تغییرات حرکت کنند و بتوانند فرصت‌های حاصل از این تغییرات را شناسایی و بهره‌برداری کنند. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر جهت‌گیری شخصیتی و شایستگی عاطفی بر خودکارآمدی و قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی است. جامعة آماری تحقیق شامل دانشجویان و فارغ‌التحصیلان دانشگاه‌های تهران است که 430 نفر از آنان به‌عنوان نمونة آماری انتخاب شدند. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و ازنظر نحوة گردآوری اطلاعات، توصیفی است. داده‌ها از طریق نمونه‌گیری غیر تصادفی در دسترس و با استفاده از پرسش‌نامه گردآوری شدند. روایی آن نیز با توجه به روایی واگرا و همگرا تأیید شد و پایایی آن نیز با استفاده از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ و پایایی ترکیبی مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. پس از بررسی نرمال بودن داده‌ها، فرضیه‌های پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از ضریب همبستگی پیرسون و مدل معادلات ساختاری و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS نسخة 25 و AMOS نسخة 24 آزمون شد. نتایج نشان داد که جهت‌گیری شخصیتی (اجتماعی و کارآفرینانه) تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر خودکارآمدی و قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی دارد. شایستگی عاطفی (اجتماعی و شخصی) تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر خودکارآمدی و قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی دارد. همچنین، خودکارآمدی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی نشان داد. درنهایت، نقش میانجیگری جزئی خودکارآمدی در تأثیر جهت‌گیری (کارآفرینانه و اجتماعی)، شایستگی عاطفی (اجتماعی و شخصی) بر قصد کارآفرینی اجتماعی مورد تأیید قرار گرفت.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_4897_001ab2fa029c064a45e41f8b2644a292.pdf

دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 Identifying and prioritizing obstacles to selling green products in promoting sustainable consumption patterns using the best-worst and fuzzy TODIM method شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی موانع فروش محصولات سبز در ترویج الگوی مصرف پایدار با استفاده از روش بهترین- بدترین و تودیم فازی 29 48 4889 10.22070/cs.2025.20707.1440 FA محمد صفری استادیار گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، مازندران، ایران. 0000-0002-3286-3957 دانیال اسماعیل نژاد دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بازرگانی- بازاریابی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، مازندران، ایران. 0009-0006-0966-7188 Journal Article 2024 05 21 Aim and introduction: With increasing concerns about climate change and environmental degradation, the need to reform traditional consumption patterns towards more responsible and environmentally friendly approaches has become increasingly apparent. As one of the main pillars of sustainable development, sustainable consumption patterns play a vital role in preserving the environment, reducing pollutants, and optimizing natural resources. In recent years, changing consumption patterns towards environmental sustainability has become a central topic in the sustainable development literature. Changing consumption patterns requires transformation in social institutions, technologies and lifestyles, which is a complex and time-consuming process. In this regard, policymakers and international organizations emphasize the promotion of sustainable consumption, because this pattern not only leads to reducing pressure on limited natural resources, but also paves the way for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. However, achieving this goal requires changing consumer behavior and developing the market for green products, which itself is accompanied by numerous challenges. Innovative green products have received attention in recent years as an effective solution to reduce negative environmental impacts. In this regard, designing effective sales strategies can greatly increase the adoption rate of green products. Green product sales management, as a connecting link between producers and consumers, plays a key role in promoting sustainable consumption. Strategic sales management can play a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to sustainable consumption.) According to studies, trained salespeople are able to significantly influence the intention to purchase green products by using persuasive techniques. This paper makes a major contribution to the literature on sustainable consumption reform by demonstrating the importance of identifying sales barriers for green products. In this study, we identified sales barriers for green products from previous literature and used the fuzzy Delphi method to screen these barriers. In the next step, the evaluation criteria for sales barriers are measured using the fuzzy best-worst method. In the next step, the most key barriers and challenges for sales barriers for green products will be ranked using the fuzzy TOPSIS method and based on the evaluation criteria. The proposed research framework based on the combination of the fuzzy multi-criteria method helps sales managers to identify the most important challenges and sales barriers for green products and to have better planning for the promotion and sale of these products. Methodology: The method of this research is quantitative. In order to identify the barriers to the sale of green products in order to improve the sustainable consumption pattern and also the criteria for evaluating these barriers, the previous literature was first systematically reviewed. Then, the fuzzy Delphi method was used to screen the evaluation criteria and sales barriers. In the next step, the criteria for evaluating the sales barriers of green products were weighted using the fuzzy best-worst method, and then the screened barriers were prioritized using the fuzzy Todim method. The statistical population of the present study consists of eight specialists and managers of green product sales in the provinces of Mazandaran, Khorasan Razavi, and Tehran. Finding: In a situation where the transition to a sustainable consumption pattern is recognized as a global necessity to combat environmental degradation and achieve sustainable development goals, green products are considered as key tools for this transformation. However, the deep gap between consumers' positive attitude and actual purchasing behavior indicates the existence of complex structural and operational barriers in the path of selling these products. These challenges clearly show that simply promoting environmental benefits is not enough and that accurate identification, evaluation, and ranking of sales barriers is an inevitable step for designing effective operational strategies and optimal resource allocation. Therefore, in this study, using a combination of multi-criteria decision-making methods, the barriers to selling green products were identified and ranked in order to improve the sustainable consumption pattern. The barriers and evaluation criteria were screened using the fuzzy Delphi method. Then, the evaluation criteria were weighted using the fuzzy best-worst method, and finally, the final ranking of the barriers was obtained using the fuzzy Todim method. In this study, the lack of trust of customers in green claims was the most important barrier to selling green products. Discussion and conclusion: By identifying the basic barriers to the sale of green products in promoting sustainable consumption patterns based on current research, the results and suggestions were extracted and presented. As one of the key results, poor branding is an important barrier and an important challenge for selling green products that were identified and explained in this study. Green brands that cannot create a strong and identifiable identity will first challenge customers and ultimately finalize sales to customers. If a brand fails to introduce itself well and convey the benefits of its green products effectively to customers, they will probably fail to get their attention and trust. If a brand fails to create this emotional connection, customers may be less likely to buy its products. Also, poor branding can lead to non -distinction in the market. If there are several green brands that offer similar products, customers may be confused about selection and eventually turn to non -green brands that may be better in price or ease. According to each of the identified obstacles, the applicable suggestions were extracted and presented. در عصر حاضر، الگوی مصرف پایدار به‌عنوان یک ضرورت جهانی برای مقابله با تخریب محیط‌زیست و دستیابی به اهداف توسعه پایدار شناخته می‌شود که یکی از مهم‌ترین ابزارهای تحقق آن، محصولات سبز هستند. بااین‌حال، شکاف عمیق بین نگرش مثبت مصرف‌کنندگان و رفتار واقعی خرید، نشان‌دهندة وجود موانع ساختاری و عملیاتی پیچیده‌ در مسیر فروش این محصولات است. ازاین‌رو، شناسایی موانع فروش محصولات سبز به‌منظور ترویج الگوی مصرف پایدار، گامی اساسی در کاهش این شکاف به شمار می‌رود. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی موانع فروش محصولات سبز با رویکرد اصلاح الگوی مصرف پایدار است. در راستای این هدف، ابتدا، موانع کلیدی فروش محصولات سبز و معیار‌های ارزیابی آن‌ها از طریق بررسی ادبیات پیشین شناسایی و با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی غربال شدند. در مرحلة بعد، عوامل منتخب با روش بهترین- بدترین فازی وزن‌دهی شد. در گام پایانی، موانع فروش با بهره‌گیری از روش تودیم فازی رتبه‌بندی شدند. در این پژوهش 8 مانع از 17 مانع غربالگری نهایی شدند. نتایج پژوهش حاضر نشان داد که از میان هشت مانع نهایی، عدم اعتماد مشتریان به ادعاهای سبز به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین چالش و مانع فروش محصولات سبز شناخته شد. برندسازی ضعیف شرکت تولیدکنندة محصول سبز در رتبة دوم، بازار هدف محدود و تعریف‌نشده در جایگاه سوم و عدم تمایل مشتریان به تغییر عادت‌های مصرفی در رتبه چهارم قرار گرفتند. یافته‌‌های این پژوهش می‌تواند به‌عنوان راهنمایی برای مدیران فروش در صنایع مختلف به‌منظور بهبود راهکارهای فروش محصولات سبز و ترویج الگوی مصرف پایدار مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_4889_cf63547fadc1aa6e897a62291e0cb124.pdf

دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 Identifying Challenges and Ranking Strategies for the Implementation of Industry 4.0 Technologies شناسایی چالش‌ها و رتبه‌بندی راهبردهای پیاده‌سازی فناوری‌های صنعت 0.4 در صنعت فولاد کشور 49 66 4866 10.22070/cs.2025.20714.1441 FA داریوش محمدی زنجیرانی دانشیار دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان ، ایران. 0000-0002-2987-6765 مجتبی خودسیانی کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. 0000-0002-2987-6765 Journal Article 2024 04 07 Introduction and Purpose: The Fourth Industrial Revolution, commonly known as Industry 4.0, has catalyzed significant transformations in production methodologies and maintenance systems. Nonetheless, the adoption and effective utilization of these technologies within Iran's steel industry encounter various challenges. This study aims to identify and analyze the obstacles associated with the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies at the Isfahan Mobarakeh Steel Company, particularly focusing on the maintenance and repair department. Methodology: In contrast to prior research that primarily offered general overviews of Industry 4.0 technologies or assessed organizational readiness for their implementation, this study specifically investigates the challenges associated with the adoption of these technologies at Mobarakeh Steel Company. Furthermore, it emphasizes the development of strategies to mitigate these identified obstacles. The statistical population for this study consists of ten experts from Mobarakeh Steel Company in Isfahan and its affiliated enterprises. Given the specialized nature of the research topic, participants were selected using purposive sampling. This research employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods, including the fuzzy Delphi method, the Best-Worst Method (BWM), and the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) matrix. The primary objective is to identify and prioritize critical challenges related to digital transformation and to propose effective and practical strategies for addressing these issues. The challenges identified underscore the complexity of the transition and highlight the need for targeted interventions. Finding : In the initial phase of this research, 31 identified challenges were systematically categorized into nine primary dimensions. These dimensions encompass: technical and technological challenges; organizational and managerial challenges; human and educational challenges; economic and political challenges; data and cybersecurity challenges; environmental challenges; supply chain challenges; cultural and social challenges; and research and development challenges. The research findings reveal that several obstacles significantly hinder the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies within the maintenance and repair sector. Key challenges include outdated and inefficient infrastructure, elevated costs necessitating substantial investments, a shortage of skilled labor, limitations imposed by international sanctions, complexities in supply chain management, and cybersecurity concerns. In response to this analysis, 13 strategic initiatives were refined and prioritized to address these challenges. These strategies include localizing technologies, developing a digital transformation roadmap, fostering a culture of Industry 4.0 across all organizational levels, conducting small-scale technology pilots, utilizing artificial intelligence for process management and optimization, and establishing collaborative networks among universities, research centers, and industries. The effectiveness of these strategies in mitigating the identified challenges was evaluated using the Quality House Matrix. Discussion and Conclusion: Infrastructure, investment, human resources, and supply chain coordination challenges are significant obstacles to the digital transformation of the steel industry. Among these, outdated and inefficient infrastructure has been identified as the most pressing issue, underscoring the necessity for a comprehensive review of existing systems and the modernization of equipment. This indicates that in order to keep pace with digital transformation, the steel industry must develop advanced infrastructure capable of supporting emerging technologies. Furthermore, international sanctions and restricted access to advanced technologies are also notable barriers to the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies. These challenges have imposed substantial limitations on access to modern equipment and software, thereby impeding progress towards digital transformation. The technologies associated with Industry 4.0 heavily rely on modern tools and software, the production of which necessitates advanced knowledge and expertise. Consequently, the imposition of sanctions and the reliance on foreign suppliers have posed significant challenges for domestic industries. This situation underscores the need for the localization of technologies and the enhancement of domestic production capabilities as strategic priorities. Additionally, the scarcity of skilled labor in emerging technologies, particularly in critical sectors such as maintenance and repair, constitutes another obstacle that could hinder the adoption of digital innovations. Given the complexity of Industry 4.0 technologies and the requisite high levels of technical proficiency, the absence of a specialized workforce restricts organizations' capacity to effectively implement these technologies.The strategies were analyzed using the Quality House Matrix, and their effectiveness in addressing the identified challenges was assessed. The strategies identified in this research offer specific solutions to address the challenges associated with the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies. The development of a strategic roadmap serves as a tool for precise and targeted guidance of digitalization processes, enabling organizations to allocate resources optimally and mitigate confusion during the implementation stages. Establishing a digital innovation ecosystem represents a crucial strategy that underscores the significance of collaboration among industries, academic institutions, and knowledge-based enterprises. Furthermore, by formulating and executing policies related to cyber defense and data security, organizations can effectively address both internal and external threats that may compromise the security of information systems and sensitive data, thereby mitigating potential risks and damages. انقلاب صنعتی چهارم یا صنعت 0.4، تحول عظیمی در روش‌های تولید و سیستم‌های نگه‌داری و تعمیرات ایجاد کرده است. پیاده‌سازی و بهره‌برداری از این فناوری‌ها در صنعت فولاد ایران با چالش‌های متعددی روبه‌روست که نیازمند تحلیل دقیق و شناسایی موانع و فرصت‌ها در راستای استفاده بهینه از این فناوری‌ها است. پژوهش حاضر باهدف شناسایی و تحلیل چالش‌های پیاده‌سازی فناوری‌های صنعت 0.4 در شرکت فولاد مبارکه اصفهان، با تمرکز بر بخش نگه‌داری و تعمیرات انجام‌شده است. این مطالعه با بهره‌گیری از روش‌های تحلیل داده‌های کیفی و کمی، ازجمله دلفی فازی، روش بهترین-بدترین (BWM) و ماتریس خانه کیفیت (QFD)، درصد است موانع کلیدی در مسیر تحول دیجیتال را شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی کرده و راهبرد‌های مؤثر و کاربردی برای غلبه بر این موانع ارائه دهد. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد چالش‌هایی نظیر زیرساخت‌های قدیمی و ناکارآمد، هزینه‌های بالا و نیاز به سرمایه‌گذاری کلان، کمبود نیروی انسانی متخصص، محدودیت‌های ناشی از تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، پیچیدگی زنجیره تأمین و نگرانی‌های امنیت سایبری ازجمله موانع اصلی پیاده‌سازی فناوری‌های صنعت 0.4 در این بخش به شمار می‌روند. در ادامه، 13 راهبرد کلیدی برای مقابله با این چالش‌ها پالایش و رتبه‌بندی شده است که ازجمله آن‌ها می‌توان به بومی‌سازی فناوری‌ها، تدوین نقشة راه تحول دیجیتال، ترویج فرهنگ صنعت 0.4 در سطوح مختلف سازمان، اجرای پروژه‌های پایلوت در مقیاس کوچک، بهره‌گیری از هوش مصنوعی برای مدیریت و بهینه‌سازی فرایندها و ایجاد شبکه‌ای از دانشگاه‌ها، مراکز تحقیقاتی و صنایع اشاره کرد. این راهبردها با استفاده از ماتریس خانه کیفیت تحلیل‌شده و میزان تأثیر هر یک بر رفع چالش‌های شناسایی‌شده، محاسبه گردیده است.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_4866_d403137434343677b98efc88cbd5493d.pdf

دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 A Strategic Foresight Framework for New Product Development Based on Scientific, Technological, and Market Trend Analysis ارائه چارچوب آینده‌نگاری راهبردی توسعه محصول جدید مبتنی بر تحلیل روند علم، فناوری و بازار 67 96 5048 10.22070/cs.2026.20311.1425 FA امیرسالار ونکی استراتژی و سیاست‌گذاری کسب‌وکار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-2667-6231 عباس مصلی نژاد علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-0283-2762 طهمورث حسن‌قلی‌پور یاسوری بازاریابی و توسعه بازار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-2787-4835 Journal Article 2024 04 20 Aim and introduction: The perfume industry, standing as a quintessential segment of the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market, is characterized by high volatility, rapid shifts in consumer preferences, and a fiercely competitive landscape where the product failure rate reaches approximately 45%. This sector faces a unique challenge: it must balance artistic creativity with scientific rigor and fluctuating market trends. Traditional market research methods, which are often retrospective or heavily focused on current explicit needs, fail to capture the complex, emerging forces shaping the future. Consequently, existing literature reveals a significant gap: the lack of an integrated framework that simultaneously analyzes scientific, technological, and market trends to guide New Product Development (NPD). Current approaches tend to analyze these domains in isolation—creating "islands" of insight that miss the synergistic opportunities at their intersection. This study aims to bridge this gap by proposing a Strategic Foresight Framework. The primary objective is to move beyond fragmented trend analysis and provide a holistic mechanism that translates macro-trends into concrete, de-risked, and innovative product concepts, using the perfume industry as a case study for managing uncertainty in creative, experience-driven sectors. Methodology: To achieve a comprehensive foresight analysis, this research employs an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design, executed in three distinct phases that move from quantitative data mining to qualitative expert synthesis. Phase One utilized rigorous quantitative techniques to map macro-trends across three domains. In the Science domain, 3,103 articles from the Web of Science were analyzed via bibliometrics, network analysis, theme analysis, and topic modeling to identify shifting research priorities. In the Technology domain, 19,646 patents from Lens.org were scrutinized using CPC classification network analysis, Subject-Action-Object (SAO) semantic analysis, and topic modeling to decode functional innovations. The Market domain analysis focused on the top 100 rated female perfumes annually from 2012 to 2024, sourced from Parfumo.net, utilizing product feature network analysis, association rule mining to find hidden ingredient combinations, dynamic link prediction, and sentiment analysis to understand consumer "whys." Phase Two involved a qualitative expert panel of 30 specialists, including foresight experts, technical perfumers, and market analysts. Through structural analysis and cross-impact matrices, the diverse quantitative data points were synthesized to identify key "Driving Forces" and their interdependencies. Finally, Phase Three employed a three-round Delphi method to refine these drivers into a validated "Future Roadmap" and subsequently generate and validate a specific new product concept, ensuring the findings were not only theoretical but also operationally viable. Finding: The integrated analysis revealed a paradigmatic shift in the perfume industry, moving from a transactional model focused on selling "products" to a relational model centered on offering "experience-based ecosystems." In the scientific domain, bibliometric analysis highlighted a shift from the traditional "motor theme" of chemical synthesis and formulation toward emerging themes such as "Neuroscience" and "Sensory Perception." Research is increasingly focusing on the biological and psychological impact of scent, validating the connection between olfactory stimuli and emotional well-being. In the technological domain, the SAO analysis revealed a functional evolution from "preservation" to "active control." Innovation is currently driven by "Smart Encapsulation" systems designed for triggered release in response to moisture or heat, rather than just stability. Furthermore, the analysis identified a surge in AI-driven formulation and "Green Chemistry/Biogenesis," indicating a move away from resource-intensive extraction toward precision molecular design that creates nature-identical scents through fermentation. In the market domain, quantitative mining of perfume notes has revealed a specific evolution in consumer palates: the "Gourmand" (edible) notes are aggressively infiltrating all levels of the olfactory pyramid, moving from base notes to top notes. Association rule mining has identified that successful modern perfumes increasingly pair traditional floral hearts with unexpected savory or woody accords to create greater complexity. Furthermore, sentiment analysis indicates that consumers are shifting from simply seeking a "good scent" to demanding "self-expression" and "functional well-being," with a non-negotiable emphasis on sustainability. Synthesizing these streams, the study identified five converging macro-drivers for the future: (1) Functional Scent: Perfumes designed to perform specific tasks, such as enhancing mood or malodor neutralization. (2) Personalized: A shift toward "My Scent" rather than "The Scent," enabled by AI and layering techniques. (3) Conscious: A demand for radical transparency, where biotechnology replaces scarce natural resources to ensure sustainability without compromising quality. (4) Experience-Driven: Scent as a narrative device, integrated with digital storytelling. (5) Reinvented: The use of AI to discover novel molecules that human noses have never encountered. Based on these drivers, the expert panel validated a final product concept titled "The Alchemist." This concept features a refillable, sustainable vessel and a transforming scent profile utilizing notes such as Sichuan pepper (representing energy/transformation) and Oud (representing depth/permanence). It is designed to provide a tangible narrative of personal transformation, satisfying the strategic need for a product that is simultaneously functional, deeply personal, and sustainably engineered. Discussion and Coclusion: This study contributes to the innovation management literature by demonstrating that integrating strategic foresight into the early "fuzzy front end" of new product development (NPD) significantly reduces uncertainty and failure rates. The proposed framework validates that successful future products must address three strategic imperatives: multi-modal functionality (combining olfactory pleasure with psychological benefits), deep emotional personalization (moving beyond demographic targeting to psychographic resonance), and tangible sustainability (embedding ethics into the product's molecular construction). By systematically linking scientific capabilities, technological enablers, and market demands, the framework provides a robust roadmap for organizations to navigate volatility and actively shape the future of their industry. صنعت عطر، به‌عنوان بخشی از بازار کالاهای تند مصرف، با چالش نرخ بالای شکست محصولات جدید به دلیل تغییرات سلایق و عدم قطعیت مواجه است. ریشه این چالش را می‌توان در تحلیل پراکنده و جزئی‌نگر نیروهای شکل‌دهنده آینده، یعنی روندهای کلیدی علم، فناوری و بازار، جست‌وجو کرد. ازاین‌رو، هدف اصلی این پژوهش، ارائه و به‌کارگیری یک چارچوب آینده‌نگاری راهبردی برای تحلیل این سه حوزه و ترجمه بینش‌های حاصل به فرصت‌های نوآورانه برای توسعه محصول جدید است. این پژوهش از یک طرح تحقیق آمیخته تبیینی بهره می‌برد. در فاز اول، با استفاده از رویکرد کمّی (علم‌سنجی، تحلیل پتنت و تحلیل داده‌های بازار)، روندهای کلان در سه حوزه مورداشاره رصد شدند. در فاز دوم، یافته‌ها با دانش کیفی یک پنل متشکل از ۳۰ خبره تلفیق گردید تا پیشران‌های کلیدی شناسایی و چشم‌انداز آینده صنعت ترسیم شود. درنهایت، این چشم‌انداز با بهره‌گیری از روش دلفی و اجماع خبرگان، به یک مفهوم محصول نهایی و اعتبارسنجی شده پالایش گردید. نتایج تحلیل، پنج نیروی پیشران کلان را برای آینده صنعت عطر آشکار ساخت: 1. رایحه عملکردی، 2. شخصی‌سازی‌شده، 3. آگاهانه، 4. تجربه‌محور و 5. بازآفرینی‌شده. این پیشران‌ها گذار پارادایمی صنعت از فروش «محصول» به سمت ارائه یک «اکوسیستم تجربه‌محور» را ترسیم می‌کنند. بر این اساس، سه جهت‌گیری راهبردی کلیدی برای توسعه ایده محصول جدید استخراج شدند: 1. حرکت به سمت عملکردگرایی چندوجهی، 2. شخصی‌سازی عمیق عاطفی و روایی و 3. تجسم پایداری به شکلی ملموس و شفاف. این پژوهش چارچوبی برای نوآوری پیش‌نگرانه ارائه می‌دهد که به شرکت‌ها در مدیریت عدم قطعیت در توسعه محصول جدید کمک می‌کند.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_5048_c7b4bb942f0b5d4860d4319772182765.pdf

دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 Conceptualization and Empirical Test of a Model of Individual, Cultural, Social and Economic Factors Affecting Sustainable Consumption Behavior among Iranian Consumers تبیین و آزمون تجربی مدل عوامل فردی، فرهنگی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی مؤثر بر رفتار مصرف پایدار در میان مصرف‌کنندگان ایران 97 114 5067 10.22070/cs.2026.21320.1464 FA مریم بهزادی دانشجوی دکتری ، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران. 0000-0001-8269-0700 کریم حمدی استاد، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-3791-5311 حسین وظیفه دوست استاد، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران 0000-0001-7442-5595 Journal Article 2025 12 05 Introduction and Problem Statement:In the contemporary era, the escalation of environmental crises and resource depletion has necessitated a paradigm shift from conventional to sustainable consumption patterns. Sustainable consumption behavior (SCB) is no longer a peripheral concern but has become a central pillar of global environmental policy and corporate strategy. Despite extensive research, most existing models predominantly focus on Western contexts or rely on relatively narrow psychological frameworks, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). However, SCB in emerging economies, particularly in Iran, is a complex phenomenon shaped by a unique interplay of traditional values, social pressures, and volatile economic conditions. This study addresses a significant research gap by proposing an integrated framework that explores how individual, cultural, social, and economic factors collectively influence two critical dimensions of SCB: Resource Optimization and Green Product Selection. The primary objective is to move beyond the “intention–action gap” and empirically test a holistic model that captures the socio-economic realities of Iranian consumers. Theoretical Framework and Methodology:The theoretical foundation of this research is built upon an interdisciplinary approach that integrates environmental psychology with socio-economic theories. We conceptualize SCB as the outcome of four distinct yet interrelated clusters: • Individual Factors: Internal drivers, including environmental awareness, personal responsibility, and pro-environmental attitudes. • Cultural Factors: Macro-level influences, such as collective values, lifestyle patterns, and traditional sustainability norms. • Social Factors: Meso-level drivers, including peer influence, family dynamics, and social status. • Economic Factors: Structural drivers, including affordability, perceived cost–benefit ratios, and market accessibility. To test this model, a quantitative research design was employed. Data were collected through a structured survey administered to a diverse sample of Iranian consumers. The analysis was conducted using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), a robust method suitable for testing complex structural models with high predictive accuracy. Empirical Results and Findings:The measurement model was rigorously evaluated in terms of reliability and validity. The results confirmed excellent psychometric properties: • Reliability: Cronbach’s alpha (α = 0.824) and Composite Reliability (CR > 0.70) exceeded the recommended thresholds, indicating high internal consistency. • Validity: Average Variance Extracted (AVE > 0.50) confirmed convergent validity, while the Fornell–Larcker criterion supported discriminant validity. The structural model analysis revealed substantial explanatory power, far exceeding that of typical behavioral models reported in the literature: • Explanatory Power: The model explained 73.4% of the variance in Resource Optimization (R² = 0.734) and 71.4% of the variance in Green Product Selection (R² = 0.714). • Model Fit: The Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) index was calculated at 0.678, indicating a strong fit between the proposed model and the empirical data. Key findings indicate that, while individual awareness is a necessary prerequisite, the social and cultural context often acts as the primary catalyst or barrier to sustainable consumption behavior. Cultural factors were found to exert a significant moderating effect on the translation of personal attitudes into actual behavior. Furthermore, economic factors emerged as a critical constraint, particularly with regard to the price sensitivity associated with green products under the current economic conditions in Iran. Discussion and Managerial Implications:The results demonstrate that SCB in Iran is a highly contextualized form of behavior. The high R² values suggest that the inclusion of social and economic variables provides a considerably more accurate prediction of consumer behavior than individual-centric models. One of the most striking findings is the “Value–Action Gap,” whereby high levels of environmental awareness do not necessarily translate into green purchasing behavior because of economic barriers and social norms that continue to favor conventional consumption patterns. Managerial and Policy Implications:For Policymakers: Governments should move beyond awareness-raising campaigns and focus on structural incentives. Reducing the “green premium” (i.e., the additional cost associated with sustainable products) through subsidies or tax incentives is essential for increasing market penetration. For Marketers: Companies should leverage social proof and culturally relevant storytelling. Since social and cultural factors are powerful drivers of behavior, marketing strategies should frame sustainable consumption not merely as an “ethical choice” but as a “socially desirable lifestyle” aligned with local values. For NGOs: Environmental organizations should focus on community-based interventions that normalize resource optimization practices (e.g., energy and water conservation) as a collective social responsibility. Conclusion and Originality:This study contributes to the literature by providing one of the first comprehensive empirical tests of a multidimensional SCB model in the Middle East. Its originality lies in the integration of economic and cultural constraints within a structural equation modeling framework, thereby offering a high-resolution perspective on the Iranian consumer. The findings suggest that achieving sustainability goals requires a synchronized effort across individual, social, cultural, and economic spheres. Future research should consider longitudinal research designs to examine how changing economic conditions further influence these behavioral drivers. این پژوهش باهدف تبیین و آزمون تجربی مدل عوامل فردی، فرهنگی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی مؤثر بر رفتار مصرف پایدار در میان مصرف‌کنندگان ایرانی انجام شد. مطالعه حاضر با رویکرد آمیخته اکتشافی و در دو بخش کیفی و کمی اجرا گردید. در مرحله کیفی، با بهره‌گیری از نظریه‌پردازی داده‌بنیاد و انجام مصاحبه با خبرگان حوزه‌های بازاریابی و محیط‌زیست، ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های رفتار مصرف پایدار در ایران شناسایی و مدل مفهومی اولیه تدوین شد. سپس در مرحلۀ کمی، پرسش‌نامه محقق‌ساخته مبتنی بر یافته‌های کیفی میان ۳۹۲ نفر از مصرف‌کنندگان بالای ۱۸ سال توزیع شد و داده‌ها با استفاده از مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری و روش حداقل مربعات جزئی تحلیل گردید. نتایج نشان داد که سازه‌های فردی، فرهنگی–اجتماعی، اقتصادی و نهادی سهم قابل‌توجهی در تبیین دوُبعد اصلی رفتار مصرف پایدار، یعنی «بهینه‌سازی مصرف منابع» و «انتخاب محصولات سبز» دارند. آگاهی و آموزش زیست‌محیطی و ارزش‌های اجتماعی قوی‌ترین پیش‌بین‌های رفتار مصرف پایدار بودند؛ درحالی‌که نگرانی نسبت به آینده، علی‌رغم معناداری، اثر ضعیف‌تری نشان داد. در سطح اقتصادی، وضعیت معیشتی خانوار، قیمت و دسترسی به محصولات پایدار نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در رفتار مصرف‌کننده داشت. یافته‌ها همچنین نشان داد که حمایت‌های دولتی و تبلیغات سبز موجود هنوز اثرگذاری مطلوبی بر رفتار پایدار ندارند و حتی در برخی موارد اثر منفی دارند. تحلیل پیامدها نیز بیانگر آن بود که بهینه‌سازی مصرف و انتخاب محصولات پایدار به‌طور معناداری به کاهش آسیب‌های زیست‌محیطی، بهبود کیفیت زندگی و تقویت توسعه پایدار منجر می‌شوند. ادغام یافته‌های کیفی و کمی نشان داد که رفتار مصرف پایدار در ایران حاصل برهم‌کنش پیچیده مجموعه‌ای از عوامل فردی، هنجارهای فرهنگی، محدودیت‌های اقتصادی و شرایط نهادی است. بر این اساس، پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست‌های آموزشی، اصلاحات اقتصادی، افزایش شفافیت اطلاعاتی و بازطراحی پیام‌های فرهنگی و رسانه‌ای در جهت تقویت رفتار مصرف پایدار مورد بازنگری و تقویت قرار گیرند.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_5067_08048a9c5630ccb67789a198f35d30ec.pdf

دانشگاه شاهد نشریه علمی راهبردهای بازرگانی 2345-220X 21 24 2025 01 20 The Role of Artificial Intelligence Workflow Integration in Creating Sustainable Commercial Competitive Advantage: The Role of Organizational Dynamic Capabilities in Digital Businesses in Iran نقش یکپارچه‌سازی جریان‌های کاری هوش مصنوعی در خلق مزیت رقابتی پایدار بازرگانی: بررسی نقش قابلیت‌های پویای سازمانی در کسب‌وکارهای دیجیتال ایران 115 134 5072 10.22070/cs.2026.21403.1466 FA سیدمرتضی غیورباغبانی استادیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام رضا(ع)، خراسان رضوی، مشهد، ایران. 0000-0001-5345-1516 آرمینا میرزاده 1. دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام رضا(ع)، مشهد، ایران. 0009-0002-8839-0789 Journal Article 2026 02 15 Aim and Introduction: With the expansion of AI technologies and the digitalization of organizational processes, organizations are increasingly seeking to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in dynamic and competitive environments. Despite the high potential of AI to enhance the efficiency and quality of decision-making, evidence suggests that the mere adoption of this technology does not guarantee sustainable competitive advantage. In this context, AI workflow integration has emerged as a key factor that enables the strategic exploitation of AI by embedding it into the organization’s core processes. From the perspective of dynamic organizational capabilities, firms must be able to identify opportunities, adapt to environmental changes, and reconfigure resources effectively. Recent research indicates that AI value creation is largely achieved through the enhancement of these capabilities. However, the organizational mechanisms underlying this relationship—particularly in digital businesses operating in emerging economies—have received limited attention. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the mediating role of organizational dynamic capabilities in the relationship between AI workflow integration and sustainable competitive advantage. Methodology: This study adopts an applied, quantitative, and correlational-analytical research design. The statistical population consists of managers and decision-makers of digital businesses in Iran who possess practical experience in applying artificial intelligence technologies in their professional activities. Given the specialized nature of the population and limited access to respondents, non-probability purposive sampling was employed. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale. The questionnaire items were adapted from validated scales in prior studies and localized to align with Iran’s institutional and technological context. To ensure the quality of the measurement instrument, content validity and reliability were rigorously assessed, and necessary revisions were made based on expert feedback. A total of 250 valid questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The research hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling with partial least squares (PLS-SEM) through SmartPLS software. This method was selected due to its suitability for predictive research, complex models, and non-normal data distributions. Findings: The findings indicate that AI workflow integration has a positive and significant effect on sustainable competitive advantage in digital businesses. Furthermore, AI workflow integration positively and significantly influences organizational dynamic capabilities. The results also demonstrate that dynamic capabilities exert a significant positive effect on sustainable competitive advantage. Importantly, the analysis confirms the mediating role of organizational dynamic capabilities in the relationship between AI workflow integration and sustainable competitive advantage. These findings suggest that AI-driven workflows enhance competitive advantage not only directly but also indirectly by strengthening the firm’s ability to sense opportunities, adapt to environmental changes, and effectively reconfigure resources. Discussion and Conclusion: In today’s digitally intensive business environment, access to advanced technologies such as AI is no longer sufficient to secure long-term competitiveness. Firms must embed these technologies into their organizational routines and leverage them through dynamic capabilities. The results highlight that AI workflow integration functions as a strategic enabler that enhances organizational adaptability and learning, thereby fostering sustainable competitive advantage. This study contributes to the existing literature by proposing an integrated model that explains how AI creates competitive value through organizational mechanisms rather than solely through direct technological effects. The findings suggest that managers of digital businesses should focus not only on investing in AI technologies but also on developing dynamic capabilities by promoting data-driven decision-making, organizational learning, and flexible resource reconfiguration. Finally, this study offers practical implications for managers and policymakers by emphasizing the importance of aligning AI initiatives with organizational capabilities and contextual conditions. By doing so, digital businesses can strengthen their resilience and secure a sustainable competitive position in increasingly competitive markets. در عصر تحول دیجیتال، هوش مصنوعی به‌عنوان محرکی کلیدی برای توسعه و ارتقای رقابت‌پذیری سازمان‌ها مطرح است. بااین‌حال، چگونگی تبدیل به‌کارگیری این فناوری به مزیت رقابتی پایدار از طریق سازوکارهای سازمانی همچنان مبهم است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر یکپارچه‌سازی جریان‌های کاری هوش مصنوعی بر مزیت رقابتی پایدار بازرگانی در کسب‌وکارهای دیجیتال با تأکید بر بررسی نقش قابلیت‌های پویای سازمانی است. پژوهش ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و از حیث روش، توصیفی - پیمایشی و تحلیلی است. جامعۀ آماری پژوهش شامل مدیران و تصمیم‌گیرندگان کسب‌وکارهای دیجیتال در ایران است که تجربۀ عملی در به‌کارگیری فناوری‌های هوش مصنوعی در فعالیت‌های حرفه‌ای خود دارند. با توجه به ماهیت تخصصی جامعه آماری و محدودیت دسترسی به برآورد دقیق از حجم جامعه، روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمندِ غیراحتمالی به‌عنوان روش مناسب انتخاب شد. در این راستا، ۲۵۰ نفر از مدیران و کاربران حرفه‌ای هوش مصنوعی به‌عنوان نمونه پژوهش انتخاب شدند. داده‌ها از طریق پرسش‌نامه محقق‌ساخته گردآوری‌ و با استفاده از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری تحلیل شدند. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که یکپارچه‌سازی جریان‌های کاری هوش مصنوعی تأثیر مستقیم و معناداری بر مزیت رقابتی پایدار دارد. همچنین، این متغیر از طریق تقویت قابلیت‌های پویای سازمانی، اثر غیرمستقیم و قابل‌توجهی بر مزیت رقابتی ایجاد می‌کند. نتایج همچنین حاکی از آن است که قابلیت‌های پویای سازمانی به‌طور مستقل نیز بر مزیت رقابتی پایدار اثرگذار هستند. افزون بر این، زیرساخت‌های فناورانه مناسب نقش مهمی در تسهیل تبدیل هوش مصنوعی به منبعی راهبردی ایفا می‌کنند. بر اساس نتایج، هم‌افزایی میان فناوری و قابلیت‌های سازمانی برای ایجاد و حفظ مزیت رقابتی پایدار حیاتی ضروری است. این پژوهش با ارائه بینش‌های راهبردی، مدیران حوزه‌های بازرگانی دیجیتال را در طراحی و اجرای مؤثر راهبردهای مبتنی بر هوش مصنوعی یاری می‌کند.

https://cs.shahed.ac.ir/article_5072_a6e8ad49045f0bef72fb92d7c4a97fed.pdf