Dynamic Evaluation and Ranking of the Performance of Good Governance Dimensions in Urban Management of Bushehr _A Dynamic Grey Relational Analysis Approach

Aim and introduction: Rapid urbanization in recent decades has significantly increased the complexity of urban management and intensified citizens’ expectations regarding transparency, accountability, service quality, and institutional effectiveness. In Iran, where nearly three-quarters of the population reside in urban areas, municipalities face mounting pressure to deliver efficient public services under financial and institutional constraints. In this context, urban governance has emerged as a vital conceptual and operational framework for improving managerial performance and enhancing citizen satisfaction. Although the concept of “good urban governance” has been widely discussed, many empirical studies have relied primarily on static or cross-sectional approaches. Such studies often examine limited dimensions of governance, overlooking the dynamic evolution of performance over time. This limitation is particularly relevant in developing countries, where frequent managerial changes, policy discontinuities, and institutional instability significantly influence the effectiveness of local governance. Consequently, a methodological gap remains in evaluating how different dimensions of good urban governance evolve dynamically and how their relative performance contributes to citizen satisfaction. The present study addresses this gap by conducting a dynamic evaluation and ranking of good urban governance dimensions in Bushehr, Iran, with a specific emphasis on citizen satisfaction. By applying the Dynamic Grey Relational Analysis (D-GRA) approach, this research aims to identify which governance dimensions demonstrate stronger temporal alignment with the desired governance pattern and which require greater policy attention to improve their effectiveness and stability..
Methodology: This research adopts an applied, quantitative approach. Initially, a systematic review of international and national literature was conducted to identify common governance indicators. Based on this review and considering the institutional characteristics of Iranian urban management, global governance indicators were localized and adapted to the municipal level. As a result, six core dimensions of good urban governance were identified: managerial efficiency and effectiveness, quality of budget formulation, enforcement of urban regulations, managerial stability, transparency and accountability, and corruption control. The empirical analysis focuses on Bushehr as a medium-sized Iranian city with distinct administrative, economic, and geographical characteristics. Performance data related to municipal governance were collected over a four-year period (2019–2022). Given the limited data availability and the presence of uncertainty in governance performance, D-GRA was employed as the primary analytical method. This method is particularly suitable for analyzing complex systems with small samples and incomplete information, as it allows for the evaluation of dynamic relationships among variables over time. Through the D-GRA procedure, the performance of each governance dimension was compared with an ideal reference sequence representing the desirable pattern of governance. Grey relational coefficients were calculated annually, and dynamic grey relational grades were derived to assess both the temporal proximity and stability of each dimension relative to the optimal governance pattern. This approach enabled a dynamic ranking of governance dimensions, providing a clearer understanding of their performance trajectories throughout the study period.
Finding: The results of the dynamic grey relational analysis reveal notable differences among governance dimensions in terms of temporal convergence with the optimal governance pattern. Managerial efficiency and effectiveness (EM), measured primarily through the realization of municipal development budgets, achieved the highest dynamic grey relational grade (γD = 1.017) and ranked first among the evaluated dimensions. The high level of dynamic convergence indicates that the implementation of development budgets in Bushehr has shown relatively stable performance throughout the study period and has remained closest to the reference pattern. Transparency and accountability (TA), measured through indicators related to financial commitments and institutional reporting mechanisms, ranked second with a dynamic grey relational grade of 0.875. This result indicates that financial commitment fulfillment and transparency mechanisms have maintained a relatively strong alignment with the reference governance pattern. Managerial stability (SM), calculated based on the frequency of changes in senior municipal management, ranked third with a dynamic grade of 0.682. Although this dimension showed lower convergence compared with the two leading indicators, the results suggest that managerial fluctuations have gradually stabilized during parts of the study period. The enforcement of urban regulations (PL), derived from the proportion of development expenditures within the total municipal budget, ranked fourth with a dynamic grade of 0.608. The results indicate that although regulatory and planning compliance was satisfactory in some years, periodic fluctuations limited stronger convergence with the reference pattern. Quality of budget formulation (QD), measured through the ratio of realized development budgets to total budget allocations, ranked fifth with a dynamic grade of 0.605. The moderate convergence of this indicator suggests that improvements in some years were insufficient to fully compensate for earlier performance gaps. Finally, corruption control (CC), measured through the number of official oversight communications, formal inquiries, and monitoring actions, ranked sixth with a dynamic grade of 0.576. The relatively lower convergence indicates that monitoring and oversight activities during the study period remained further from the desired governance benchmark. Overall, the D‑GRA results (λ = 0.25) indicate that EM and TA exhibit the strongest dynamic convergence with the reference governance pattern and demonstrate greater performance stability. In contrast, QD and CC show the weakest alignment and therefore require greater attention in future governance improvement strategies..
Discussion and Coclusion: The rapid growth of cities in recent decades has transformed urban governance into a complex, multidimensional process. Increasing population pressures, infrastructure demands, and environmental challenges have rendered traditional management approaches insufficient for addressing contemporary urban problems. In this context, improving managerial effectiveness and governance quality has become a central priority for urban administrations.
The findings of this study indicate that the governance pattern in Bushehr during the study period was relatively asymmetric. While managerial efficiency and transparency demonstrated stronger and more stable performance, other dimensions—such as budget quality and corruption control—showed greater distance from the desired governance pattern. These results suggest that improvements in urban governance cannot rely on isolated, short-term interventions; rather, they require sustained institutional development and long-term policy continuity. The study also highlights the influence of institutional cycles in Iran; as municipal leadership and city council terms often follow four-year cycles, managerial transitions can introduce short-term performance fluctuations. In such contexts, dynamic evaluation methods like D-GRA provide a more accurate perspective by capturing cumulative performance trends rather than relying on static annual assessments.From a policy perspective, strengthening governance in Bushehr requires maintaining managerial efficiency, expanding transparency mechanisms and digital information systems, improving institutional stability, and reforming budget planning and oversight. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the efficacy of D-GRA for evaluating governance performance in environments characterized by data limitations and institutional uncertainty. By capturing temporal dynamics, this method offers policymakers more realistic insights into governance performance evolution. Ultimately, evaluating urban governance through a dynamic framework provides a deeper understanding of how governance dimensions influence citizen satisfaction, supporting evidence-based, transparent, and resilient urban management systems