نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری
نویسندگان
1 استراتژی و سیاستگذاری کسبوکار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 بازاریابی و توسعه بازار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Purpose: The perfume industry, a quintessential segment of the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market, is characterized by high volatility, rapid shifts in consumer preferences, and a product failure rate reaching approximately 45%. Traditional market research, often retrospective or focused on current needs, fails to capture the complex, emerging forces shaping the future. Consequently, existing literature reveals a significant gap: the lack of an integrated framework that simultaneously analyzes scientific, technological, and market trends to guide New Product Development (NPD). This study aims to bridge this gap by proposing a Strategic Foresight Framework. The primary objective is to move beyond fragmented trend analysis and provide a holistic mechanism that translates macro-trends into concrete, de-risked, and innovative product concepts, using the perfume industry as a case study for managing uncertainty in creative sectors.
Methodology: This research employs an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design, executed in three distinct phases. Phase One utilized quantitative data mining to map macro-trends across three domains: Science (3,103 articles from Web of Science analyzed via bibliometrics, network analysis, theme analysis, and topic modeling), Technology (19,646 patents from Lens.org analyzed using CPC classification network analysis, Subject-Action-Object semantic analysis, theme analysis, and topic modeling), and Market (data from the top 100 rated female perfumes annually between 2012-2024 from Parfumo.net, analyzed via product feature network analysis,, association rule mining, link prediction, and sentiment analysis). Phase Two involved a qualitative expert panel of 30 specialists (foresight experts, perfumers, and market analysts). Through structural analysis and cross-impact matrixes, the quantitative data was synthesized to identify key "Driving Forces." Finally, Phase Three employed a three-round Delphi method to refine these drivers into a validated "Future Roadmap" and subsequently generate and validate a specific new product concept, ensuring the findings were not just theoretical but operationally viable.
Findings: The integrated analysis revealed a paradigmatic shift in the perfume industry from selling "products" to offering "experience-based ecosystems." Scientific Trends: Research is migrating from traditional chemical synthesis and formulation toward "Neuroscience" and "Sensory Perception," focusing on the biological and psychological impact of scent. Technological Trends: Innovation is driven by "Smart Encapsulation" for controlled release, AI-driven formulation, and sustainable biogenesis, moving away from simple extraction to precision molecular design. Market Trends: Consumers are transitioning from seeking a "good scent" to demanding "self-expression" and "functional well-being," with a strong emphasis on sustainability and unique, non-traditional olfactory accords. The study identified five converging macro-drivers for the future: (1) Functional Scent, (2) Personalized, (3) Conscious, (4) Experience-driven, and (5) Reinvented. Based on these, the study developed "The Alchemist," a validated product concept featuring a refillable, sustainable vessel and a transforming scent profile (e.g., Sichuan pepper and Oud) designed to offer a tangible narrative of personal transformation.
Conclusion: This study contributes to the innovation management literature by demonstrating that the integration of foresight into the early "fuzzy front end" of NPD significantly reduces uncertainty. The proposed framework validates that successful future products must address three strategic imperatives: Multi-modal Functionality, Deep Emotional Personalization, and Tangible Sustainability.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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