نویسندگان
دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Procuring manpower is one the strategic goals of every organization. Expert manpower is not easily attainable whenever needed. Therefore, organizations should have a plan to provide themselves with expert manpower in accord with their future goals. This research aimed to answer two major questions: 1) Is there a balance present between supply and demand of doctors with respect to the number of patients? 2) What is an appropriate model for planning and predicting the expert manpower needed? To this aim, in this applied research the effort is taken to make a balance between the number of doctors with respect to the number of patients using Box – Jenkins predicting model. This model predicts the number of patients in the desired future taking regulations and standards of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education into consideration. The major hypothesis of this research is that the above mentioned model used an Auto regressive integrated – moving average (ARIMA), but after collecting and analyzing the data using "stat graph" software it came evident that the RA (1) model was used for the research. It was also shown that there is not any balance present between supply and demand of the expert manpower in the statistical society (educational hospitals), and certain recommendations are put forth.
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